Originally published August 6, 2024 | By: Paolo Confino

The court ruling that Google is a “monopolist” could have ripple effects across the entire tech industry.

A recent analyst note from Wedbush Securities lays out some of the possible scenarios. Some are more likely than others, and not all are favorable for Google—though some could be. The options on the table include a ban on the billions’ worth in exclusivity agreements Google struck with other companies, a massive fine, or the long-shot possibility that Apple seizes the opportunity to parachute into the search engine business itself, potentially with a formidable player like OpenAI, according to Wedbush.

For consumers, the end of “Let me google that for you,” a term that officially became a verb in 2006, could mean that it will ultimately be easier for them to access other search engines. But just because access is easier doesn’t mean Google’s business will evaporate. Consumers could simply choose it over competitors. However, if Google’s position were to slip, it could open the door to other search engines now that they could more fairly compete.

What could happen to Google?

The most straightforward outcome is if Google wins its appeal. In that case, the current ruling would be overturned and things would stay as they are. Google has about a 30% to 40% chance of winning its appeal, according to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives’s estimate. The appeal will likely take months if not years to play out and until then things could be in a holding pattern.

There are also two less likely scenarios. In one, companies like Apple, now unencumbered by lucrative but restrictive default agreements, simply replace Google with a different search engine. Wedbush doesn’t see that happening because Google is widely considered to be the best search engine on the market.

The second unlikely scenario is that Apple uses this as an opportunity to start developing its own competitor to Google.
If done properly, Apple could seamlessly integrate an AI search tool across its countless devices across the world, says Jim Kaskade, CEO of Conversica, a cloud company developing conversation AI. “This is a potentially big win and will help unseat Google’s dominance,” he said.

Read the full article at Fortune.